Commodity Calls: Week Ending 7 June 2024

Crude oil demand rises thanks to jet-setting tourists, the Chinese central bank pauses gold purchases, and copper needs 194 new mines to match growing demand.

Join Global X each week for ‘Commodity Calls’ to explore all the recent signals and developments that occurred in the world of commodities.

Looking for more? Check out this week’s Market Moves and Thematic Spotlight.

Crude Oil

Bullish

  • Global jet fuel demand is now back at pre-Covid levels for the first time since 2020.1 According to the OPEC, as the Northern hemisphere enters the summer holiday travel season, and pent-up demand in China is realised, jet fuel and general oil usage are expected to rise this year.2 Overall, jet fuel demand is set to rise by 650,000 bpd in 2024 compared to 2023.3
  • According to a report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US oil and gas industry spent US$234 billion on mergers and acquisitions in 2023 – the most since 2012.4 The momentum has continued in 2024 with more than US$69 billion spent YTD.5

Bearish

  • Revenues for the Russian federal budget from crude oil and natural gases rose by 73.5% YoY for the period January to May 2024.6 Russian oil revenue has been increasing as Moscow has found increasingly more ways to skirt trade sanctions and find non-US aligned buyers willing to risk the geopolitical backlash.
  • The OPEC+ have revealed plans to add almost 2.5 million bpd to global crude oil production between now and October 2025, two years earlier than previously forecasted.7 Oil prices fell 5% on the news, prompting the group to walk back some of the announcements, insisting that the bulk of the increase in production would occur at the later half of the proposed period.8

Explore crude oil with BCOM.

Gold

Bullish

  • Geopolitical tension remains a driver of safe haven purchases in gold and precious metals. In the latest escalation of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, US and NATO members allowed Ukraine to use US/NATO supplied weapons to hit military targets on Russian soil – a move that could be interpreted by Russia as direct involvement in the war by the West.9

Bearish

  • The People’s Bank of China did not buy any gold in May, ending a one-and-a-half year long purchasing spree that began in November 2022.10 The move could signal gold’s high-flying price may finally be impacting global central bank demand.
  • Strong job market reports in the US have reduced the onus on the Fed to cut rates in the near term. Non-farm employment changes surprised to the upside last Friday, coming in at 272,000 against an expected 182,000 jobs gained.11 Market pricing now suggests a 50/50 chance of rate cuts occurring in the Fed’s September meeting.12

Explore physical gold with GOLD.

Copper

Bullish

  • A recent study published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests the copper industry will need to develop 194 large new mines by 2050 in order to meet net-zero targets which include the proliferation of EVs and the clean power grid.13

Bearish

  • Copper prices fell below US$10,000 per tonne as speculative purchasing momentum dried up and exchange stockpiles climbed.14 Copper supply on the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed to its highest in four years last week despite seasonal purchases typically increasing during this time of year.15

Explore copper with WIRE.

 

Forecasts are not guaranteed and undue reliance should not be placed on them. This information is based on views held by Global X as at 12/06/2024. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Diversification does not ensure a profit nor guarantee against a loss.

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This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information is not intended to be individual or personalised investment or tax advice and should not be used for trading purposes. Please consult a financial advisor or tax professional for more information regarding your investment and/or tax situation.